Institute for Strategic Research Expediency CouncilSocio-Cultural Strategy2251-70817420190220Plausible Future Scenarios of Cyberspace Content in Iran 2025Plausible Future Scenarios of Cyberspace Content in Iran 2025534117816FAMassoud KowsariAssociate Professor, Department of Communications, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of TehranMahdi MontazerghaemAssistant Professor, Department of Communications, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of TehranMohammad Mahdi MowlaeiPh.D in Communications, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of TehranJournal Article20201012This article looks at the quality of cyberspace content on the horizon of Iran 2025. We seek to identify upcoming futures which called "scenario" in the futures studies literature. We categorized 15 driving forces with the highest importance and uncertainty, and then four critical uncertainties were identified to construct scenarios: user or technology centric, network status, global power balance of cyberspace and Iranian policy. 36 scenarios were created from the combination of the states of these uncertainties. By using cross-impact balance analysis method and ScenarioWizard software, finally, we identified five scenarios with the highest degree of consistency as more plausible scenarios. These scenarios are named as follows: Whale in the Ocean, Fish in the Aquarium, Dolphin in the Gulf, Turtle in the Pot and Frog in the Pond. Each of these scenarios depicts a different future image of the cyberspace content and the occurrence of each of them depends on our current decisions and actions. Finally, the indicators and sign guides of the scenario were identified so supervising the scenarios and monitoring events will be possible.This article looks at the quality of cyberspace content on the horizon of Iran 2025. We seek to identify upcoming futures which called "scenario" in the futures studies literature. We categorized 15 driving forces with the highest importance and uncertainty, and then four critical uncertainties were identified to construct scenarios: user or technology centric, network status, global power balance of cyberspace and Iranian policy. 36 scenarios were created from the combination of the states of these uncertainties. By using cross-impact balance analysis method and ScenarioWizard software, finally, we identified five scenarios with the highest degree of consistency as more plausible scenarios. These scenarios are named as follows: Whale in the Ocean, Fish in the Aquarium, Dolphin in the Gulf, Turtle in the Pot and Frog in the Pond. Each of these scenarios depicts a different future image of the cyberspace content and the occurrence of each of them depends on our current decisions and actions. Finally, the indicators and sign guides of the scenario were identified so supervising the scenarios and monitoring events will be possible.Institute for Strategic Research Expediency CouncilSocio-Cultural Strategy2251-70817420190220An Analysis of Rural Habitations in Country's Development Plan
The Case Study of Economic-Social Plans after the Islamic Revolution (1989-2016)An Analysis of Rural Habitations in Country's Development Plan
The Case Study of Economic-Social Plans after the Islamic Revolution (1989-2016)3572117817FAShahram AmirentekhabiAssistant Professor of Geography and Rural Planning, Payame Nour University, Gilan, IranFarhad JavanPh.D Candidate of Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Geographical Science, Kharazmi University, Tehran, IranLoghman JavidM.A. in Geography and Rural Planning, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.Journal Article20201012Rural habitations have long been the main part of the country's habitation system. Despite the changes in housing systems in the country, these habitations still have a special status. According to the documentations, despite the declining population of the country's villages in the last 100 years, especially during the census years of 1966-1996, which dropped from 70% to 30%, they are still considered to be centers for ensuring food security of the country and supplying strategic products such as wheat and protein. Therefore, the basis of the socio-economic life in Iran, according to the findings of orientalists and domestic researchers, still seems to be rural habitations. This article evaluates the five-year plans after the Islamic Revolution in terms of attention to and emphasis on the dimensions and indicators of rural development in 2016. In this regard, the research method is descriptive-analytical and data collection has been done using library studies and review of the contents of the five-year plans. To analyze the data, qualitative content analysis method has been used. The results of the research showed that in the process of development programs of the country from the beginning of the first development program in 1989 to the fifth development program ending in 2016, the general content and dimensions of the programs in relation to rural development policies have been enhanced. Then, among social, economic and environmental programs, paying attention to social programs has been more prominent than the other dimensions of rural development. Finally, rural development has enjoyed the highest status in the fifth five year plan and also the third development plan has entailed impressive results compared to other plans.Rural habitations have long been the main part of the country's habitation system. Despite the changes in housing systems in the country, these habitations still have a special status. According to the documentations, despite the declining population of the country's villages in the last 100 years, especially during the census years of 1966-1996, which dropped from 70% to 30%, they are still considered to be centers for ensuring food security of the country and supplying strategic products such as wheat and protein. Therefore, the basis of the socio-economic life in Iran, according to the findings of orientalists and domestic researchers, still seems to be rural habitations. This article evaluates the five-year plans after the Islamic Revolution in terms of attention to and emphasis on the dimensions and indicators of rural development in 2016. In this regard, the research method is descriptive-analytical and data collection has been done using library studies and review of the contents of the five-year plans. To analyze the data, qualitative content analysis method has been used. The results of the research showed that in the process of development programs of the country from the beginning of the first development program in 1989 to the fifth development program ending in 2016, the general content and dimensions of the programs in relation to rural development policies have been enhanced. Then, among social, economic and environmental programs, paying attention to social programs has been more prominent than the other dimensions of rural development. Finally, rural development has enjoyed the highest status in the fifth five year plan and also the third development plan has entailed impressive results compared to other plans.Institute for Strategic Research Expediency CouncilSocio-Cultural Strategy2251-70817420190220Effectiveness of Mindfulness Substance Abuse Prevention Program on Psychological Well-being and Reducing the Recurrence of Substance AbuseEffectiveness of Mindfulness Substance Abuse Prevention Program on Psychological Well-being and Reducing the Recurrence of Substance Abuse7392117818FAMohammad Ebrahim MaddahiAssistant Professor, Department of General Psychology, Shahed University, Tehran, IranHassan AhadiAssistant Professor, Department of Psychology, Islamic Azad University, Karaj BranchJavad KhalatbariAssistant Professor, Department of Psychology, Islamic Azad University, Tonkabon BranchMohammadreza BeliadAssistant Professor, Department of Psychology, Islamic Azad University, Karaj BranchJournal Article20201012 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />The objective of this study is to examine Mindfulness Substance Abuse Prevention Program effectiveness on well-being and reducing the recurrence of substance abuse. As for methodology, this research is applied in terms of objective and is experimental in terms of data gathering by using pre-test, post-test and follow-up with control group. The statistical population of this study consisted of all the men afflicted by industrial substance abuse (within the range of 20 and 50 years old) who abandoned drug abuse. A sample of 30 persons was selected through purposive sampling and divided into experimental (n=18, M=41.2, S=3.1) and control (n=12, M=39.9, S=2.8) groups. Data were collected using the Ryff’s psychological well-being scale, and analyzed through repeated measurement and Chi-square test method. The findings of the study demonstrated that Mindfulness Substance Abuse Prevention Program results in a meaningful increase of psychological well-being and meaningful reduction of recurrence of substance abuse in experiment group participants. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />The objective of this study is to examine Mindfulness Substance Abuse Prevention Program effectiveness on well-being and reducing the recurrence of substance abuse. As for methodology, this research is applied in terms of objective and is experimental in terms of data gathering by using pre-test, post-test and follow-up with control group. The statistical population of this study consisted of all the men afflicted by industrial substance abuse (within the range of 20 and 50 years old) who abandoned drug abuse. A sample of 30 persons was selected through purposive sampling and divided into experimental (n=18, M=41.2, S=3.1) and control (n=12, M=39.9, S=2.8) groups. Data were collected using the Ryff’s psychological well-being scale, and analyzed through repeated measurement and Chi-square test method. The findings of the study demonstrated that Mindfulness Substance Abuse Prevention Program results in a meaningful increase of psychological well-being and meaningful reduction of recurrence of substance abuse in experiment group participants. <br /> Institute for Strategic Research Expediency CouncilSocio-Cultural Strategy2251-70817420190220Explaining Relationship between Media Persuasion of Social Network and Lifestyle- The Case Study of InstagramExplaining Relationship between Media Persuasion of Social Network and Lifestyle- The Case Study of Instagram93114117819FAAlireza Ale GheissPh.D Candidate in Media Management, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, IranSeyed Mohammad DadgaranAssociate Professor, Department of Media Management and Public Relations, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, IranMohammadreza RasouliAssociate Professor, Department of Media Management and Public Relations, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, IranJournal Article20201012 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />These days’ social networks become a platform for attendance of social groups, especially youth, and a space for exchanging views and thoughts and meeting the needs of their social life, these networks in addition to meet many sociocultural needs of their members, allow them to perform their social activities through computers and mobile phones, and simultaneously to act in virtual societies. On the other hand, media should accomplish persuasion techniques in order to affect their audiences adequately. Having been persuaded, they change their attitude and imitate the life style and behavior of those who had persuaded them. This article tries to extract social networks components based on international and authoritative definitions and find an answer for the key question that how is the relationship between social network and audience’s life style. This research which has been conducted by using a descriptive – explanation method and the analysis of the gathered data, makes clear that persuasion made by social network can cause some changes in audience’s life. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />These days’ social networks become a platform for attendance of social groups, especially youth, and a space for exchanging views and thoughts and meeting the needs of their social life, these networks in addition to meet many sociocultural needs of their members, allow them to perform their social activities through computers and mobile phones, and simultaneously to act in virtual societies. On the other hand, media should accomplish persuasion techniques in order to affect their audiences adequately. Having been persuaded, they change their attitude and imitate the life style and behavior of those who had persuaded them. This article tries to extract social networks components based on international and authoritative definitions and find an answer for the key question that how is the relationship between social network and audience’s life style. This research which has been conducted by using a descriptive – explanation method and the analysis of the gathered data, makes clear that persuasion made by social network can cause some changes in audience’s life.Institute for Strategic Research Expediency CouncilSocio-Cultural Strategy2251-70817420190220Presenting a Model for the Key Factors of Educational Success through Social Networks: A Synthesis ResearchPresenting a Model for the Key Factors of Educational Success through Social Networks: A Synthesis Research115145117821FAMeysam GholampourAssistant Professor, Department of Psychology, Islamic Azad University, Karaj BranchMohammad Ali RostaminejadPh.D in Educational Technology, Assistant Professor, Department of Behavioral Science and Psychology, University of Birjand.Mohammad Akbari BorangPh.D in Curriculum Planning, Assistant Professor, Department of Behavioral Science and Psychology, University of Birjand.Sima Ghorani SirjaniPh.D Candidate in Curriculum Planning, University of Birjand.Journal Article20201012 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Today, the use of social networks has grown dramatically among young people; meanwhile, the use of these networks has been neglected, to some extent, in education. The purpose of this study is to investigate and identify the key factors for the success of education through social networks. <br />The research approach is qualitative and its method is based on synthesis research. The study population consists of 723 articles on the use of social networks in education published in scientific journals or presented in credible conferences between 2007 and 2018. The research sample consists of 43 articles that have been purposefully collected and were selected based on thematic monitoring and theoretical geometric data. The research data were collected from the qualitative analysis of the documents studied. <br />Based on data analysis, the key factors of social networking success in education were classified in 4 dimensions, 9 factors and 40 categories. These dimensions include the structural dimension (including organizational factors and network quality); the dimension of management systems (including the factors of the system of learning management, content management and network management); behavioral dimension (including learner and educator factors) and background dimension (including technological and cultural factors). In the end, factors of educational success through social networks have been presented as a template. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />Today, the use of social networks has grown dramatically among young people; meanwhile, the use of these networks has been neglected, to some extent, in education. The purpose of this study is to investigate and identify the key factors for the success of education through social networks. <br />The research approach is qualitative and its method is based on synthesis research. The study population consists of 723 articles on the use of social networks in education published in scientific journals or presented in credible conferences between 2007 and 2018. The research sample consists of 43 articles that have been purposefully collected and were selected based on thematic monitoring and theoretical geometric data. The research data were collected from the qualitative analysis of the documents studied. <br />Based on data analysis, the key factors of social networking success in education were classified in 4 dimensions, 9 factors and 40 categories. These dimensions include the structural dimension (including organizational factors and network quality); the dimension of management systems (including the factors of the system of learning management, content management and network management); behavioral dimension (including learner and educator factors) and background dimension (including technological and cultural factors). In the end, factors of educational success through social networks have been presented as a template.Institute for Strategic Research Expediency CouncilSocio-Cultural Strategy2251-70817420190220A Survey of Strategies to Promote Ethical Citizenship in TehranA Survey of Strategies to Promote Ethical Citizenship in Tehran147185117822FABahareh ArvinFaculty Member of the Department of Sociology, Tarbiat Modarres UniversityMoslem GhomashlouyanM.A. in SociologyJournal Article20201012 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />This project aims to propose municipal policies for promoting ethical citizenship in Tehran. The focus of this research is to identify and examine the factors involving in ethical citizenship, considering the limits and potentials of urban management in Tehran. Moving away from a general assessment of the adherence to ethical citizenship and the individual factors affecting this adherence, we conducted a comparative survey to measure the effects of the following variables on the degree of adherence to ethical citizenship: (1) the number of community centers in the neighborhood of residence and (2) the quality of interactions and coexistence with unknown others. The results showed that interactions and coexistence with unknown others positively influence the adherence to ethical citizenship; however, the empirical evidence did not illustrate any relationship between the number of community centers and the degree of ethical citizenship. According to these results, in our policy recommendations, we suggest that Tehran Municipality should focus on providing services to groups rather than individuals. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />This project aims to propose municipal policies for promoting ethical citizenship in Tehran. The focus of this research is to identify and examine the factors involving in ethical citizenship, considering the limits and potentials of urban management in Tehran. Moving away from a general assessment of the adherence to ethical citizenship and the individual factors affecting this adherence, we conducted a comparative survey to measure the effects of the following variables on the degree of adherence to ethical citizenship: (1) the number of community centers in the neighborhood of residence and (2) the quality of interactions and coexistence with unknown others. The results showed that interactions and coexistence with unknown others positively influence the adherence to ethical citizenship; however, the empirical evidence did not illustrate any relationship between the number of community centers and the degree of ethical citizenship. According to these results, in our policy recommendations, we suggest that Tehran Municipality should focus on providing services to groups rather than individuals.Institute for Strategic Research Expediency CouncilSocio-Cultural Strategy2251-70817420190220Recognition of Factors Contributing to Make a University EntrepreneurialRecognition of Factors Contributing to Make a University Entrepreneurial187208117824FAHoda Sadat MohseniAssistant Professor and Member of Faculty of Alzahra UniversityJournal Article20201012 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />The present study aims to identify factors contributing universities to become entrepreneurial. In this regard, we first studied the existing literature and theoretical foundations and after extracting the involved factors, they were categorized and designed in the form of a researcher-made questionnaire. Subsequently, using semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of entrepreneurship, the extracted factors were examined and a few of them was rejected and others were verified. In the next step, based on the identified factors, the present situation of Alzahra University was studied. This research is applied in terms of purpose, quantitative in terms of approach, and is considered a descriptive survey in terms of collecting data. The statistical population of the study was consisted of 344 members of faculty members of Alzahra University. Using Morgan table, 182 of them were selected through stratified sampling. The data gathering tool was a researcher-made questionnaire. In the first part of the study, the findings indicated 8 factors and 50 indicators including entrepreneurial leadership (8 indicators), entrepreneurial organizational structure (4 indicators), entrepreneurship training factor (9 indicators), entrepreneurial culture factor (9 indicators) , faculty members and creative and innovative staff factor (7 indicators), entrepreneurial marketing factor (4 indicators), entrepreneurial supporting measures (4 indicators), commercialization of research (5 indicators), that all of which were approved. In the second part of the study, based on the identified factors, the status of Alzahra University was studied. Findings show that Alzahra University, except for the "organizational entrepreneurial structure" factor, is not in a satisfactory situation in terms of other identified factors. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />The present study aims to identify factors contributing universities to become entrepreneurial. In this regard, we first studied the existing literature and theoretical foundations and after extracting the involved factors, they were categorized and designed in the form of a researcher-made questionnaire. Subsequently, using semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of entrepreneurship, the extracted factors were examined and a few of them was rejected and others were verified. In the next step, based on the identified factors, the present situation of Alzahra University was studied. This research is applied in terms of purpose, quantitative in terms of approach, and is considered a descriptive survey in terms of collecting data. The statistical population of the study was consisted of 344 members of faculty members of Alzahra University. Using Morgan table, 182 of them were selected through stratified sampling. The data gathering tool was a researcher-made questionnaire. In the first part of the study, the findings indicated 8 factors and 50 indicators including entrepreneurial leadership (8 indicators), entrepreneurial organizational structure (4 indicators), entrepreneurship training factor (9 indicators), entrepreneurial culture factor (9 indicators) , faculty members and creative and innovative staff factor (7 indicators), entrepreneurial marketing factor (4 indicators), entrepreneurial supporting measures (4 indicators), commercialization of research (5 indicators), that all of which were approved. In the second part of the study, based on the identified factors, the status of Alzahra University was studied. Findings show that Alzahra University, except for the "organizational entrepreneurial structure" factor, is not in a satisfactory situation in terms of other identified factors.Institute for Strategic Research Expediency CouncilSocio-Cultural Strategy2251-70817420190220Conservation Strategies and Tourism Development in Iran’s Heritage Sites (Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Approach)Conservation Strategies and Tourism Development in Iran’s Heritage Sites (Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Approach)209241117825FAHamid Zargham BroujeniAssociate Professor, Department of Tourism, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba'i UniversityAkbar PourfarajAssociate Professor, Department of Tourism, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba'i UniversityAli Morovati SharifabadiAssociate Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Economics, Management and Accounting, Yazd UniversityFatemeh AziziPh. D Candidate in Tourism Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba'i UniversityJournal Article20201012Nowadays, heritage tourism is considered one of the important and developing forms of international tourism. Heritage sites are the main source of heritage tourism. However, striking a balance between tourism and cultural heritage is the main concern of the officials and decision makers involved in cultural heritage in order to keep their importance through their renovation and maintenance and creating attractions for tourists. This research identifies the strengths and weaknesses of tourism development in Iran’s heritage sites as well as opportunities and threats facing it, with an emphasis on the conservation. Also the authors have used the combination of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method with goal programming (GP) and fuzzy theory, to prioritize conservation strategies of tourism development in Iran's heritage sites. This is an applied research in terms of results. To gather the data (by using purposive sampling method), an expert survey was conducted. The results show that three major conservation strategies that are: “coordination between the Iranian Cultural Heritage Organization, the government (Police, Municipality, Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Intelligence, Ministry of Roads, Judiciary Branch, etc.), and other countries and international organizations for conservation of sites”; “setting guidelines for preservation, restoration, maintenance and management of heritage sites” and “complying with the conservation standards declared by the Iranian Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism Organization and other national and international regulations", and "the capacities of historical sites for operations related to constructions (such as alteration of land use, road construction, etc.)" are respectively having higher priority in developing heritage tourism in Iran.Nowadays, heritage tourism is considered one of the important and developing forms of international tourism. Heritage sites are the main source of heritage tourism. However, striking a balance between tourism and cultural heritage is the main concern of the officials and decision makers involved in cultural heritage in order to keep their importance through their renovation and maintenance and creating attractions for tourists. This research identifies the strengths and weaknesses of tourism development in Iran’s heritage sites as well as opportunities and threats facing it, with an emphasis on the conservation. Also the authors have used the combination of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method with goal programming (GP) and fuzzy theory, to prioritize conservation strategies of tourism development in Iran's heritage sites. This is an applied research in terms of results. To gather the data (by using purposive sampling method), an expert survey was conducted. The results show that three major conservation strategies that are: “coordination between the Iranian Cultural Heritage Organization, the government (Police, Municipality, Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Intelligence, Ministry of Roads, Judiciary Branch, etc.), and other countries and international organizations for conservation of sites”; “setting guidelines for preservation, restoration, maintenance and management of heritage sites” and “complying with the conservation standards declared by the Iranian Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism Organization and other national and international regulations", and "the capacities of historical sites for operations related to constructions (such as alteration of land use, road construction, etc.)" are respectively having higher priority in developing heritage tourism in Iran.Institute for Strategic Research Expediency CouncilSocio-Cultural Strategy2251-70817420190220A Study of the Effects of Market Orientation, Marketing Capabilities, and Commercialization of Innovation on the Performance of Insurance CompaniesA Study of the Effects of Market Orientation, Marketing Capabilities, and Commercialization of Innovation on the Performance of Insurance Companies243258117826FAKarim HamdiAssociate professor, Department of Business Management, Islamic Azad University Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran.Journal Article20201012Market orientation (MO) which helps companies achieve superior performance through customer value creation is the heart of modern marketing thinking and method. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of market orientation, marketing capabilities, and commercialization of innovation on the performance of insurance companies, considering the moderating role of marketing strategies and organizational strength. This is an applied study in terms of purpose, and a descriptive survey in terms of data collection method. The statistical population of the present study is composed of the representatives of Sina Insurance Company. By using the PLS3 software to analyze 86 sets of questionnaires collected from the company's representatives, the researchers found that market orientation of insurance companies has an impact on the commercialization of their innovation. The market orientation of the insurance company affects their performance. Also, the market orientation of the insurance company has an impact on their marketing capabilities. On the other hand, the marketing capabilities and commercialization of these companies exert an influence on their performance. Marketing strategies moderate the impact of marketing capabilities on the insurance companies in a positive way. However, the organizational power does not modify the impact of marketing capabilities of the insurance companies on their performance. It was also found that marketing capabilities and commercialization of innovation function as minor intermediaries.Market orientation (MO) which helps companies achieve superior performance through customer value creation is the heart of modern marketing thinking and method. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of market orientation, marketing capabilities, and commercialization of innovation on the performance of insurance companies, considering the moderating role of marketing strategies and organizational strength. This is an applied study in terms of purpose, and a descriptive survey in terms of data collection method. The statistical population of the present study is composed of the representatives of Sina Insurance Company. By using the PLS3 software to analyze 86 sets of questionnaires collected from the company's representatives, the researchers found that market orientation of insurance companies has an impact on the commercialization of their innovation. The market orientation of the insurance company affects their performance. Also, the market orientation of the insurance company has an impact on their marketing capabilities. On the other hand, the marketing capabilities and commercialization of these companies exert an influence on their performance. Marketing strategies moderate the impact of marketing capabilities on the insurance companies in a positive way. However, the organizational power does not modify the impact of marketing capabilities of the insurance companies on their performance. It was also found that marketing capabilities and commercialization of innovation function as minor intermediaries.