Prioritizing Climate Change Risks with Fuzzy-AHP Method and Providing Prevention, Reduction, and Adaptation Strategies in Tehran metropolis

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Environmental Science, Department of Environmental Science, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University,

2 MSc Student, Department of Environmental Planning, University of Tehran

Abstract

Abstract;
Escalation of climate changes in the world will lead to serious effects on urban environments and causes irreversible damage. The 10-year forecast of changes in climatic parameters in Tehran metropolis, which is always facing increasing environmental problems, indicates that the rate of precipitation and temperature until 2021 will increase more sharply compared to previous periods. These changes can lead to serious effects on and risks for the urban environment. Identifying the current and future effects of these changes on the urban environment can contribute to the planning for decreasing these risks and benefiting from the opportunities. In previous studies, the most important potential risks of changes in climatic parameters in Tehran are identified and, in this study, 11 potential risks of changes in temperature and precipitation in Tehran are chosen and then, by employing Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP), are weighted, ranked, and prioritized. Following that, some strategies are provided for preventing and decreasing the risks of and adapting with the changes in climatic parameters in order to be employed in 5-year planning of Tehran city. These strategies are developed using SWOT and Internal & External (IE) Matrix and consequently, in order to quantify the strategies, the Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) is employed. The results of this study indicate that the most optimal strategies are the defensive strategies. ;

Keywords

References

الف) منابع فارسی

1. سازمان فناوری اطلاعات شهرداری تهران، سالنامه آماری شهر تهران، 1390.
2. مرکز آمار ایران، 1390، سالنامه آماری کشور.
3. مرکز مطالعات و برنامه‌ریزی شهر تهران، گزارش وضعیت محیط زیست شهر تهران، 1392.
4. نوازی، آزاده، 1394، ارزیابی ریسک تغییر اقلیم در محیط زیست شهری، ارائه شفاهی در پنجمین کنفرانس منطقه‌ای تغییر اقلیم.

ب) منابع لاتین

1. Alam., M and Golam Rabbani, M. D., (2007). Vulnerabilities and responses to climate change for Dhaka, Environment and Urbanization, 19. 81- 97.
2. ALAVI, I. (2014). FUZZY AHP METHOD FOR PLANT SPECIES SELECTION IN MINE RECLAMATION PLANS: CASE STUDY SUNGUN COPPER MINE.iranian Journal of Fuzzy Systems, 11. 5: 23-38.
3. Ayers, J.. (2009). International funding to support urban adaptation to climate change. Environment and Urbanization. 21. 225-241.
4. Brown, A., Dayal, A. and Rumbaitis Del Rio, C., (2012). From practice to theory: emerging lessons from Asia for building urban climate change resilience, Environment and Urbanization, 24. 531-556.
5. Cash, D. W., Clark,W. C., Alcock, F., Dickson, M. N., Eckley, N., Guston, D. H., Ja¨ger, J. and Mitchell, R. B., (2003). Knowledge systems for sustainable development. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 100. 8086–8091.
6. CHANG, Da-Yong. (1996). Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP. European journal of operational research, , 95. 3: 649-655.
7. Cradock-Henry, N. (2008). Exploring perceptions of risks and vulnerability to climate change in New Zealand agriculture. Political Science, 60 (1). 151-155.
8. Downing, A and Cuerrier,A., (2011). A synthesis of the impacts of climate change on the First Nations and Inuit of Canada, International Journal of Traditional Knowledge, 10. 57-70.
9. Gorener, A., Toker, Kere. and Ulucay, K. (2012). Application of Combined SWOT and AHP: A Case Study for a Manufacturing Firm, Social and Behavioral Sciences, 58. 1525 – 1534.
10. HUANG, Jih-Jeng. (2008). A matrix method for the fuzzy analytic network process. International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, 16. 06: 863-878.
11. Hughes, Sara. A meta-analysis of urban climate change adaptation planningin the U. S., Urban Climate, in press.
12. Lammel, A., Dugas, E. and Guillen, E., (2011). Traditional way of thinking and prediction of climate change in New Caledonia (France) , International Journal of Traditional Knowledge, 10. 13-20.
13. LIN, Liang; WANG, Chao. (2012). On consistency and ranking of alternatives in uncertain AHP. Natural Science,, 4. 05: 340.
14. Meinke1, H., Nelson, R., Kokic, Ph., Stone1, R., Selvaraju, R. and Baethgen, W., (2006). Actionable climate knowledge: from analysis to synthesis, Climate Research, 33. 101–110.
15. Navazi, A., Karbassi, A., Mohammadi, Sh., Monavari, S. M. and Moteaddi Zarandi, S., A Modelling Study for Predicting Temperature and Precipitation Variations, International Journal of Global Warming, in press.
16. Neil Adger, W., Huq, S., Brown, K., Conway, D. and Hulme, M. (2003). Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Progress in Development Studies. 3. 179- 195.
17. Nichols, A., Richardson, J., & Maynard, V. (2010). Climate change and communicable disease: what are the risks?. Journal of Infection Prevention,11 (5). 146-148.
18. OĞUZTİMUR, Senay. Why Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach For Transport Problems?. (2011).
19. Prudent-Richard, G., Nolan, M. and Conroy N., (2010). Climate Change Risk Assessment and Adaptation Planning: Tiwi Islands Shire Council, AECOM Australia Pty Ltd, Australia.
20. REZAEINIYA, Nahid, et al. (2014). Fuzzy ANP approach for new application: Greenhouse Location selection; a case in Iran. Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science, 8. 1: 1-20.
21. Saadatabadi, A. R., Mohammadian, L. and Vazifeh, A. (2012). Controls on air pollution over a semi-enclosed basin, Tehran: A synoptic climatological approach, Iranian Journal of Science & Technology, 36. 501-510.
22. Saaty, T. L. (2008). Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process, Int. J. Services Sciences, 183–98.
23. Saaty, T. L. and Vargas, L. G. (2006). Decision making with the analytic network process economic, Political, Social and Technological Applications with Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks, (Springer) , , pp. 53.
24. Saaty, T. L.,) , (2013). Theory and Applications of the Analytic Network Process: Decision Making With Benefits, Opportunities, Costs, and Risks. (RWS Publications., United States.
25. UN-Habitat, (2010). Cities and Climate Change Initiative: Taking climate change to the local level, United Nations Human Settlements Programme.
26. United States Environmental Protection Agency, , (2010). Climate Change Indicators in the United States, EPA 430-R-10-007.
27. Yavuza, F., Baycanb, T. (2013). Use of swot and analytic hierarchy process integration as a participatory decision making tool in watershed management, Procedia Technology, 8. 134 – 143.

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics