Plausible Future Scenarios of Cyberspace Content in Iran 2025

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Department of Communications, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Communications, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran

3 Ph.D in Communications, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran

Abstract

 


 

This article looks at the quality of cyberspace content on the horizon of Iran 2025. We seek to identify upcoming futures which called "scenario" in the futures studies literature. We categorized 15 driving forces with the highest importance and uncertainty, and then four critical uncertainties were identified to construct scenarios: user or technology centric, network status, global power balance of cyberspace and Iranian policy. 36 scenarios were created from the combination of the states of these uncertainties. By using cross-impact balance analysis method and ScenarioWizard software, finally, we identified five scenarios with the highest degree of consistency as more plausible scenarios. These scenarios are named as follows: Whale in the Ocean, Fish in the Aquarium, Dolphin in the Gulf, Turtle in the Pot and Frog in the Pond. Each of these scenarios depicts a different future image of the cyberspace content and the occurrence of each of them depends on our current decisions and actions. Finally, the indicators and sign guides of the scenario were identified so supervising the scenarios and monitoring events will be possible.

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