Prioritizing Climate Change Risks with Fuzzy-AHP Method and Providing Prevention, Reduction, and Adaptation Strategies in Tehran metropolis

Document Type : Original Article


1 Ph.D. Environmental Science, Department of Environmental Science, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University,

2 MSc Student, Department of Environmental Planning, University of Tehran


Escalation of climate changes in the world will lead to serious effects on urban environments and causes irreversible damage. The 10-year forecast of changes in climatic parameters in Tehran metropolis, which is always facing increasing environmental problems, indicates that the rate of precipitation and temperature until 2021 will increase more sharply compared to previous periods. These changes can lead to serious effects on and risks for the urban environment. Identifying the current and future effects of these changes on the urban environment can contribute to the planning for decreasing these risks and benefiting from the opportunities. In previous studies, the most important potential risks of changes in climatic parameters in Tehran are identified and, in this study, 11 potential risks of changes in temperature and precipitation in Tehran are chosen and then, by employing Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process (F-AHP), are weighted, ranked, and prioritized. Following that, some strategies are provided for preventing and decreasing the risks of and adapting with the changes in climatic parameters in order to be employed in 5-year planning of Tehran city. These strategies are developed using SWOT and Internal & External (IE) Matrix and consequently, in order to quantify the strategies, the Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) is employed. The results of this study indicate that the most optimal strategies are the defensive strategies. ;


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