Population Forecasting and Dynamic Analysis of Population Structure Changes in Iran: (1355 to 1455)

Document Type : Original Article


1 Phd student, department of economics, Miyaneh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Miyaneh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Marand branch, Islamic Azad University, Marand, Iran.

4 Assistant Professor, Department of management, Miyaneh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Miyaneh, Iran



The current research has simulated the changes in the structure of the four age groups of Iran's population during the years 1355 to 1455 by using dynamic systems modeling. The results of the forecast show that the country's population will reach 94132000 million people with an average annual fertility rate of 1.6 in 1426. After that, the downward trend will reach 86416400 people in 1455. Also, the growth trend of the age group under 15 years has been decreasing since 1370, so that in 1455, the population of this age group will reach 13,794,200 people. This is despite the fact that the elderly population will grow increasingly during this period; So that it will reach 24,996,700 people, that is 29% of the total population. The results show that due to the unbalanced population growth of the country in three decades (60s, 50s and 70s) and the increase in life expectancy from 54 years to 76 years, in the coming decades the population structure of the country will be an aging structure and due to the increase in the rate of The dependence of the country's population will have harmful economic consequences. According to the results of this simulation and the presented scenarios, it is necessary to consider appropriate measures and policies in this regard.


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