نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسنده English
This study develops a legally and institutionally realistic anticipatory governance framework for Iran. It asks how functions found in international foresight systems can be transferred without copying organizational forms.
The research uses qualitative document analysis and a purposive comparison of Singapore, Finland, South Korea, Estonia and the United Arab Emirates. Evidence is analysed through a four-stage policy-transfer framework: identification, borrowing, adaptation and localization. Six criteria are applied: legal compatibility, institutional fit, administrative capacity, cultural legitimacy, data requirements and the risk of incomplete or inappropriate transfer.
Successful transfer depends on moving policy functions rather than institutional labels. The transferable functions are horizon scanning, futures-impact assessment, scenario stress-testing, adaptive policy design, policy experimentation and structured learning. The proposed model places cross-government strategic steering within the existing capacities of Iran’s Expediency Council, while explicitly excluding executive intervention.
The article replaces institution-building with institutional function-building. It translates policy transfer into an explicit analytical method and specifies concrete products: an annual Iran Futures Report, futures-impact annexes for major policies and laws, scenario tests for general policies, review clauses and trigger points, and pilot policies in water and climate adaptation, population and labour markets, and artificial intelligence in public services.
Implementation should proceed in three stages: preparation and pilots, integration into planning and legislation, and long-term institutional learning. Performance indicators should measure effects on decisions rather than the number of reports, including the time from signal detection to action, the share of policies with review triggers, and the proportion of foresight recommendations translated into policy change.
کلیدواژهها English